Predicting the Future of the World Economy

February 4, 2014
6:00 p.m. – 7:30 p.m.
Faculty House
64 Morningside Drive
Columbia University, New York

When professional stock analysts can’t predict the market – and when monkeys throwing darts at a newspaper pick as many winners as seasoned portfolio managers – who, if anyone, can predict what’s ahead? Five of the foremost economists of our time match wits with Gideon Rose, editor of Foreign Affairs, to uncover the trends that will move markets in the months and years to come.

The panel includes:

Jacob Frenkel, chairman, JPMorganChase International
Glenn Hubbard, dean and Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and Economics, Columbia Business School,
Ruchir Sharma, Head of Emerging Markets and Global Macro, Morgan Stanley Investment Management
Joseph Stiglitz, University Professor, Columbia University
Shang-Jin Wei, NT Wang Professor of Chinese Business and Economy; Director of the Jerome A. Chazen Institute of International Business, Columbia Business School

and moderated by

Gideon Rose, editor, Foreign Affairs

Registration for this event is now closed; walk-ins will be accepted if space permits just prior to the start of the event.

The event will also be webcast below starting at 6:00 p.m. on February 4.

Speaker bios

Jacob Frenkel is Chairman of JPMorganChase International and a member of the J.P. Morgan International Council. He also serves as Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Group of Thirty (G-30) which is a private, nonprofit consultative group on international economic and monetary affairs. Dr. Frenkel served from 2001-2011 as chairman and CEO of the G-30, from 2004-2009 as vice chairman of American International Group, Inc., and from 2000 to 2004 as chairman of Merrill Lynch International, as well as chairman of Merrill Lynch’s Sovereign Advisory and Global Financial Institutions Groups. Between 1991 and 2000 he served two terms as the Governor of the Bank of Israel. He is credited with reducing inflation in Israel and achieving price stability, liberalizing Israel’s financial markets, removing foreign exchange controls, and integrating the Israeli economy into the global financial system.

Glenn Hubbard was named dean of Columbia Business School on July 1, 2004. A faculty member since 1988, he is also the Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and Economics. As a faculty member at Columbia University's Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, he is professor of economics. In government, Professor Hubbard served as deputy assistant secretary of the US Treasury Department for Tax Policy from 1991 to 1993. From February 2001 until March 2003 he was chairman of the US Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) under President George W. Bush. His responsibilities included advising the president on economic policy, tax and budget policy, emerging market financial issues, international finance, health care, and environmental policy. While serving as CEA chairman, he also chaired the Economic Policy Committee of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Ruchir Sharma is Head of Emerging Markets and Global Macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1996 and has 19 years of investment experience. Prior to joining the firm, Ruchir worked with Prime Securities (Delhi), a non-banking financial services firm, where he helped run the firm's foreign exchange business. He has been a contributing editor with Newsweek and has frequently penned essays for publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Times, Foreign Affairs and The Economic Times.  Ruchir has also authored the book “Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles,”; which is an international bestseller.

Joseph Stiglitz is a University Professor at Columbia University and Co-Chair of Columbia University's Committee on Global Thought. He is also the founder and Co-President of the Initiative for Policy Dialogue at Columbia. In 2001, he was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics for his analyses of markets with asymmetric information, and he was a lead author of the 1995 Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. In 2011, Time named Stiglitz one of the 100 most influential people in the world. Stiglitz was a member of the Council of Economic Advisers from 1993-95, during the Clinton administration, and served as CEA chairman from 1995-97. He then became Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of the World Bank from 1997-2000. In 2008 he was asked by then French President Nicolas Sarkozy to chair the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, which released its final report in September 2009. In 2009 he was appointed by the President of the United Nations General Assembly as chair of the Commission of Experts on Reform of the International Financial and Monetary System, which also released its report in September 2009.

Shang-Jin Wei is the director of the Jerome A. Chazen Institute of International Business, NT Wang Professor of Chinese Business and Economy and professor of International Affairs at Columbia Business School and the School of International and Public Affairs. He is also director of the Working Group on the Chinese Economy and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (US), and Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (Europe). Prior to his Columbia appointment he was the assistant director and Chief of Trade and Investment Division at the International Monetary Fund. He was the IMF's Chief of Mission to Myanmar (Burma) in 2004. He previously held the positions of Associate Professor of Public Policy at Harvard University, the New Century Chair in Trade and International Economics at the Brookings Institution, and Advisor at the World Bank. He has been a consultant to numerous government organizations including the US Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, United Nations Economic Commission on Europe, and United Nations Development Program and the Asian Development Bank.

Gideon Rose is the editor of Foreign Affairs. He served as Managing Editor of the magazine from December 2000 to September 2010. From 1995-2000 he was Olin Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and from 1994-1995 he served as Associate Director for Near East and South Asian Affairs on the staff of the National Security Council. In 1986-87 he was Assistant Editor at The National Interest, and in 1985-86 held the same position at The Public Interest.  He has taught American foreign policy at Columbia and Princeton universities.


From our November 2013 World Economy Forum on emerging markets:

View a video excerpt: “The Aftermath of the Arab Spring”
View a video excerpt: “Why Falling Housing Prices Won’t Sink China’s Economy”