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February 11, 2011

Exclusive Report: World Economies in 2011 and Beyond

The China growth miracle will continue, but one country could surpass it. A new report by the Chazen Institute offers surprising predictions for who the big winners will be in the coming decade — and which economies will be left behind.


Where are world economies headed over the next decade? After the meltdown of 2007-08, many prognosticators are wary of making any kind of prediction. But a new, comprehensive report, released in December 2010 by the Jerome A. Chazen Institute of International Business, offers some surprising predictions on which markets are poised to catapult to the top — and which will be left behind.

The report is based primarily on a survey of business executives and professionals in 30 major economies who are graduates of Columbia Business School. Among the findings:

Emerging markets take the lead. As a group, they're projected to grow much faster than Europe and other developed regions.

India is nipping at China's heels. While China is likely to remain a fast-growing economy, its annual growth rate is projected to be around six percent over the next decade. That’s in stark contrast to the breakneck 9 to 10 percent pace of the last 10 years. India, meanwhile, could expand at a rate that will rival or even surpass China.

Australia and Canada are two sleeper economies. These countries are projected to be the best performers among developed countries. Since both countries are major commodity producers, they are well positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in emerging markets, which tend to import raw materials.

Critical constraints vary by country. Respondents in developed nations named government debt, tax rates and regulations, and government inefficiencies as top challenges. Emerging markets, meanwhile, cited corruption and poor infrastructure as constraints to growth.

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