COGNITION AND DECISION SEMINAR SERIES - ANDREI SHLEIFER

The Cognition and Decision Seminar Series presents

Memory and Representativeness

Andrei Shleifer
Harvard University

We explore the idea that judgment by representativeness reflects the workings of episodic memory, especially interference. In a new laboratory experiment on cued recall, participants are shown two groups of images with different distributions of colors. We find that i) decreasing the frequency of a given color in one group significantly increases the recalled frequency of that color in the other group, ii) for a fixed set of images, different cues for the same objective distribution entail different interference patterns and different probabilistic assessments. Selective retrieval and interference may offer a foundation for the representativeness heuristic, but more generally for understanding the formation of probability judgments from experienced statistical associations.

Thursday, Febuary 25
4:15 - 5:30 PM

Uris 142

The Cognition and Decision Seminar Series is sponsored by the Program for Economic Research and the Center for Decision Science

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