Abstract

Individuals behave differently when they know the objective probability of events and when they do not. The smooth ambiguity model accommodates both ambiguity (uncertainty) and risk. For an incomplete, competitive asset market, we develop a revealed preference test for asset demand to be consistent with the maximization of smooth ambiguity preferences; and we show that ambiguity preferences constructed from finite observations converge to underlying ambiguity preferences as observations become dense. Subsequently, we give sufficient conditions for the asset demand generated by smooth ambiguity preferences to identify the ambiguity and risk indices as well as the ambiguity probability measure. We do not require ambiguity beliefs to be observable: in a generalized specification, they may not even be dened. An ambiguity free asset plays an important role for identification.

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Citation

Polemarchakis, Herakles, Larry Selden, and Xinxi Song. "The Identification of Attitudes Towards Ambiguity and Risk from Asset Demand." Columbia Business School, March 27, 2017.

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