Short-sale constrained past-winners and losers both underperform strongly in the first year post-formation, earning market-adjusted returns of -13%, and -17%, respectively. However, constrained winners continue to underperform for the following four years, earning a cumulative market-adjusted return of -40% (t = -6.33), while past-losers earn 6% (t = 0.55). This persistence differential cannot be explained by existing models or by simple extensions of existing models. We propose a dynamic heterogeneous agents model featuring overconfidence and slow information diffusion which is able to both explain this asymmetry in mispricing persistence among short-sale constrained stocks, and to match value and momentum effects for unconstrained stocks.
Daniel, Kent, Alexander Klos, and Simon Rottke. "Overconfidence, Information Diffusion, and Mispricing Persistence." Columbia Business School, January 2020.
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